PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Twocat

0xd757186b39a7a88d6b9a7065688cec28400794aa

Realised P&L
$348.86
Volume
$149.1k
Markets traded
773
Open portfolio
$1.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded773
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes0.7170.939$292.54+$69.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No0.5400.870$174.00+$66.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8300.825$165.00−$1.00
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · No0.9300.920$110.40−$1.20
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.4100.885$86.34+$46.34
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8350.977$78.83+$11.44
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.9300.935$67.49+$0.36
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes0.9380.969$48.42+$1.52
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? · Yes0.8700.925$46.25+$2.75
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7100.715$35.75+$0.25
Felix Protocol FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.9100.980$19.59+$1.39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · No0.4800.485$15.52+$0.16
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0970.017$9.90−$48.10
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026? · No0.2260.145$7.25−$4.05
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-11-07? · Yes0.1700.180$3.60+$0.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 16:51Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-11-07?BUY0.17$3.40
10-31 16:42Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?BUY0.93$67.13
10-31 16:41Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by December 31, 2026?BUY0.034$1.70
10-31 16:40Will Ukraine re-enter Oleshky by December 31, 2026?BUY0.033$0.99
10-31 16:36Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?BUY0.23$6.90
10-31 16:34Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by November 30, 2026?BUY0.22$4.40
10-31 16:31US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?BUY0.938$18.76
10-31 16:31US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?BUY0.87$43.50
10-31 16:26Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?BUY0.93$111.60
10-31 16:21Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.83$166.00
10-31 16:14Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.71$35.50
10-31 16:12US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUY0.48$2.74
10-31 16:12US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?BUY0.48$12.62
09-16 13:19Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?SELL0.77$15.85
07-18 21:55France vs. England: Team to WinSELL0.976$97.60