ArthurGreen
0xd5db05423b6718497684ae1bbe1557746d2c3c45
- Realised P&L
- $-8.1k
- Volume
- $1.86M
- Markets traded
- 773
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded773
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.115Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
- +$969.91at 0.053Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$643.40at 0.178Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
- +$625.22at 0.071Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
- +$600.16at 0.196US strike on Syria by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:12 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 18:49 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.019 | $24.70 |
| 08-02 18:47 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.019 | $9.50 |
| 08-02 18:46 | US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.01699995 | $44.20 |
| 08-02 18:38 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.4240365151 | $150.00 |
| 08-02 13:40 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.6808883606 | $32.93 |
| 08-02 13:38 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | SELL | 0.6512864444 | $58.62 |
| 08-02 12:56 | Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? | BUY | 0.3527089071 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 12:47 | Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $438.00 |
| 08-02 12:24 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.48 | $222.75 |
| 08-02 12:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.45 | $2.08 |
| 08-02 12:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.549343259 | $200.00 |
| 08-02 11:49 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.11 | $24.20 |
| 08-02 10:50 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $74.00 |
| 08-02 10:48 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $148.00 |