0xd4969049ab90Cb058AcCDbBc3b993865b500b576-1762455731879
0xd4969049ab90cb058accdbbc3b993865b500b576
- Realised P&L
- $-60.52
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 104
- Open portfolio
- $21.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded104
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.55at 0.220US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$2.64at 0.260Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31?
- +$2.64at 0.100Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
- +$2.44at 0.009Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January?
- +$2.22at 0.310Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 18:31 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999518 | $3.14 |
| 07-31 18:29 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 17:40 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 19:54 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 07-29 22:18 | Will Assimi Goïta be out as President of Mali by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 13:24 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 13:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 03:17 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 03:15 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 15:48 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 15:40 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.3099999622 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 18:13 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199999404 | $1.69 |
| 05-14 18:13 | Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.85 |
| 05-14 18:13 | Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.86 |
| 05-06 12:16 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |