0xD3270F009Ef214966B87832dd7Fcdb8eF0Bc8b97-1771021826636
0xd3270f009ef214966b87832dd7fcdb8ef0bc8b97
- Realised P&L
- $-46.30
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $218.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.78at 0.036Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$21.14at 0.908Government shutdown on Saturday?
- +$1.55at 0.973US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?
- +$1.39at 0.880US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
- +$1.31at 0.122Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 21:17 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.709999994 | $11.74 |
| 03-01 15:40 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | BUY | 0.8799999965 | $10.20 |
| 03-01 15:36 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.20 |
| 03-01 01:31 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.3619999919 | $26.83 |
| 03-01 01:28 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | SELL | 0.964 | $26.77 |
| 02-15 17:38 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999993 | $36.86 |
| 02-15 17:34 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.027 | $2.00 |
| 02-15 17:33 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.11 |
| 02-15 17:33 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.276 | $20.44 |
| 02-15 17:33 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.138 | $11.31 |
| 02-15 17:30 | Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999955 | $7.84 |
| 02-15 12:49 | US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.0352317523 | $7.83 |
| 02-14 11:07 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | BUY | 0.7399999797 | $2.92 |
| 02-14 11:04 | US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999996 | $20.00 |
| 02-14 11:01 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8299999975 | $20.00 |