PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Peasantfarmer

0xd211a0bb544d025ed955c5e02bbbf65662dc6eaa

Realised P&L
$-287.67
Volume
$11.0k
Markets traded
233
Open portfolio
$533.33

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded233
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration8.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample43 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration3.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2000.255$13.08+$2.82
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? · Yes0.1400.175$12.96+$2.59
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1600.250$12.81+$4.61
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes0.1200.145$12.35+$2.13
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1800.135$11.26$3.75
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1850.207$11.25+$1.22
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.1000.114$11.08+$1.32
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? · Yes0.2000.210$10.77+$0.51
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes0.1800.365$10.43+$5.29
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? · Yes0.1660.323$9.73+$4.73
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.1580.304$9.61+$4.62
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.1400.115$8.52$1.85
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · Yes0.1500.125$8.34$1.65
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? · Yes0.1600.125$8.06$2.26
Maduro guilty of all counts? · Yes0.1000.260$7.77+$4.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-30 15:07Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?SELL0.009$0.39
07-20 12:00China x Philippines military clash before 2027?SELL0.53$21.44
07-19 15:17Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.018$0.45
07-15 20:47Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.017$0.38
07-15 20:17Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.459$12.75
07-15 20:17Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.339$15.07
07-14 20:43Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.015$0.85
07-14 20:19Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.49$29.79
07-13 15:51Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?SELL0.41$3.04
07-09 23:01Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL0.294199916$14.01
07-09 06:36Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?SELL0.013$0.10
07-08 12:14Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?SELL0.5$34.65
07-06 20:53Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.005$0.28
07-06 07:52Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?SELL0.013$0.57
07-06 01:33Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?SELL0.57$13.62
Trader Peasantfarmer · PolyBot