Peasantfarmer
0xd211a0bb544d025ed955c5e02bbbf65662dc6eaa
- Realised P&L
- $-340.02
- Volume
- $12.1k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $348.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.30at 0.200Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$26.05at 0.186Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?
- +$25.79at 0.178Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$23.57at 0.150Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
- +$21.32at 0.190Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 06:24 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.33 |
| 09-16 18:04 | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.70 |
| 09-15 18:06 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.07 |
| 09-15 00:34 | Vanta IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.013 | $0.29 |
| 09-13 11:42 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.27 |
| 09-12 08:50 | Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | SELL | 0.0014859594 | $0.08 |
| 09-08 11:20 | Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.43 |
| 09-07 23:56 | Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.07 |
| 09-06 19:02 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.011 | $0.48 |
| 09-03 16:03 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.009 | $0.23 |
| 09-03 08:32 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.91 |
| 08-29 12:48 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.30 |
| 08-29 01:27 | Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award? | SELL | 0.062 | $0.70 |
| 08-28 13:19 | Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $2.87 |
| 08-27 18:42 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.22 |