0xd1a67F9d75051bb3384fE7feca4f421C485889db-1789677025969
0xd1a67f9d75051bb3384fe7feca4f421c485889db
- Realised P&L
- $-8.96
- Volume
- $319.12
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $35.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.71at 0.937Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
- +$0.70at 0.799Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.37at 0.921US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- +$0.22at 0.948Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?
- +$0.08at 0.738Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 11:45 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.34 | $1.03 |
| 10-03 11:33 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5829999545 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 08:53 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $0.52 |
| 10-03 06:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9639999884 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9619991111 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:03 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9659997083 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:03 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:48 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 20:31 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 19:19 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.56 |
| 10-02 18:37 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $0.06 |
| 10-02 18:03 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:39 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.10 |
| 10-01 20:43 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.21 |
| 10-01 20:43 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $0.10 |