0xd1778fa84066254bbf4f0d200ebf81c952f9dd0e
- Realised P&L
- $-140.13
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 78
- Open portfolio
- $88.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded78
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.04at 0.160US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$6.97at 0.157Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.51at 0.670Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$5.78at 0.360US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$4.51at 0.500US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 18:35 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9802186589 | $44.26 |
| 09-01 18:35 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0789999762 | $2.80 |
| 09-01 18:33 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $49.71 |
| 08-31 15:10 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999973 | $53.54 |
| 08-31 15:10 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0191195801 | $2.08 |
| 08-31 15:00 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0160783366 | $1.33 |
| 08-31 12:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.98 |
| 08-31 12:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $26.45 |
| 08-31 12:34 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9499999769 | $26.74 |
| 08-31 12:34 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.119999969 | $3.25 |
| 08-31 12:03 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $1.85 |
| 08-31 12:03 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $32.79 |
| 08-31 11:52 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9839999736 | $32.83 |
| 08-31 11:52 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999718 | $2.16 |
| 08-31 11:21 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $1.36 |