PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

leurop2

0xd1641c8421046ac31b2db5263f1ccd8350a66284

Realised P&L
$224.58
Volume
$1.7k
Markets traded
4
Open portfolio
$4.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar13.0%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded4
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bodø/Glimt be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien? · No0.8270.977$610.31+$93.29
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.8450.970$484.75+$62.25
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8900.945$472.50+$27.50
Will Viking be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien? · No0.8540.998$469.67+$67.80
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? · No0.7290.976$389.28+$98.54
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9000.955$382.00+$22.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7850.835$375.75+$22.25
Will Nordsjælland be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga? · No0.8630.975$316.02+$36.31
Trump goes to space in 2026? · No0.9620.982$294.60+$6.13
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes0.8200.915$276.33+$28.69
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8700.972$194.30+$20.30
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? · No0.9300.925$185.00$1.00
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · No0.6700.890$55.74+$13.78

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-12 23:51Will Nordsjælland be relegated from the 2026-27 Denmark Superliga?BUY0.8629769838$279.71
09-12 23:32Will Viking be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien?BUY0.8535043007$401.87
09-12 23:32Will Bodø/Glimt be relegated from the 2026 Norway Eliteserien?BUY0.827232$517.02
09-06 21:38Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.82$41.82
09-06 21:38Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?BUY0.82$205.82