0xD0dE2a3d9E11573bDFc6EBa6e93053e29C9f370D-1778914097513
0xd0de2a3d9e11573bdfc6eba6e93053e29c9f370d
- Realised P&L
- $14.71
- Volume
- $324.39
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $140.41
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.177 | 0.895 | $90.23 | +$72.40 |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No | 0.955 | 0.988 | $45.68 | +$1.54 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes | 0.312 | 0.070 | $3.85 | −$13.30 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.033 | $0.65 | −$0.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.20at 0.240CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
- +$2.64at 0.080Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
- +$-0.90at 0.060Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$-2.24at 0.447Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 07:59 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $9.73 |
| 06-13 06:28 | Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.10 |
| 06-13 06:17 | 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.956 | $15.52 |
| 05-28 04:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.10 |
| 05-24 18:25 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.35 | $5.25 |
| 05-16 21:11 | Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.15 |
| 05-16 07:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |