PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

pika2zero

0xcfdceaac4912b9a56ce2d837269270c0bff85a2e

Realised P&L
$-290.47
Volume
$398.4k
Markets traded
994
Open portfolio
$6.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded994
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.3900.345$1.1k$140.58
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.4160.512$615.00+$115.29
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.8210.875$613.37+$38.16
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.6830.875$437.49+$95.83
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.6390.842$422.43+$102.03
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2250.162$323.00$126.28
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7950.750$236.56$14.21
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.3660.605$210.87+$83.31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.5880.565$179.67$7.31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.8200.855$179.55+$7.40
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No0.8750.885$178.88+$2.08
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.9340.945$122.84+$1.45
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.8330.967$106.33+$14.72
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.9500.959$103.52+$0.97
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No0.9580.939$93.90$1.90

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 12:37Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.758$34.11
09-14 12:36Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.745$96.85
09-14 12:36Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.33$173.25
09-12 07:10Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?BUY0.95$9.50
09-12 07:09Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?BUY0.87$87.00
09-12 07:09Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?BUY0.899$26.96
09-12 07:07Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?BUY0.828$8.28
09-12 07:07Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?BUY0.902$9.02
09-12 07:07Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?BUY0.957$13.30
09-10 09:23Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.0164058553$4.42
09-10 09:23Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?SELL0.26$36.40
09-10 09:16Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?SELL0.86$172.00
09-06 11:53Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?SELL0.1$18.65
09-06 11:52Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?SELL0.94$94.00
09-06 11:51Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?SELL0.24$70.49