pika2zero
0xcfdceaac4912b9a56ce2d837269270c0bff85a2e
- Realised P&L
- $-290.47
- Volume
- $398.4k
- Markets traded
- 994
- Open portfolio
- $6.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded994
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$583.68at 0.890MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$330.84at 0.522US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$286.96at 0.647Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$286.16at 0.190Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$246.14at 0.312US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 12:37 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.758 | $34.11 |
| 09-14 12:36 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.745 | $96.85 |
| 09-14 12:36 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.33 | $173.25 |
| 09-12 07:10 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 09-12 07:09 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $87.00 |
| 09-12 07:09 | Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.899 | $26.96 |
| 09-12 07:07 | Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.828 | $8.28 |
| 09-12 07:07 | Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.902 | $9.02 |
| 09-12 07:07 | Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.957 | $13.30 |
| 09-10 09:23 | Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0164058553 | $4.42 |
| 09-10 09:23 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $36.40 |
| 09-10 09:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $172.00 |
| 09-06 11:53 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $18.65 |
| 09-06 11:52 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $94.00 |
| 09-06 11:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $70.49 |