0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402
0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402
- Realised P&L
- $140.4k
- Volume
- $26.28M
- Markets traded
- 466
- Open portfolio
- $456.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded466
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$157.5kat 0.177US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$74.9kat 0.159US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$25.7kat 0.212US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$20.6kat 0.870Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$16.0kat 0.625US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 16:42 | Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9394805936 | $4.6k |
| 10-31 16:20 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $17.49 |
| 10-31 15:41 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $572.41 |
| 10-31 15:40 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $2.0k |
| 10-31 15:12 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.1k |
| 10-31 01:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.577 | $1.7k |
| 10-31 00:33 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $34.80 |
| 10-30 18:20 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2990509285 | $19.9k |
| 10-30 17:44 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.27 | $360.74 |
| 10-30 17:41 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? | BUY | 0.6 | $618.17 |
| 10-30 17:07 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $30.13 |
| 10-30 14:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.0785778211 | $931.04 |
| 10-30 14:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5908281326 | $2.7k |
| 10-30 12:39 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.45 | $114.47 |
| 10-30 08:43 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.4k |