0xcd647e82a3dddab23ff5f279ee29b2e2edd2e10f
0xcd647e82a3dddab23ff5f279ee29b2e2edd2e10f
- Realised P&L
- $4.93
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $44.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.670 | 0.705 | $12.63 | +$0.63 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.503 | 0.374 | $7.45 | −$2.55 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.355 | $6.57 | +$1.57 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.175 | $5.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.426 | 0.403 | $4.72 | −$0.28 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.115 | $3.19 | −$1.81 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.004 | $2.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI | 0.055 | 0.022 | $1.60 | −$2.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.14at 0.465Will Spain win on 2026-09-26?
- +$6.34at 0.620Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$4.12at 0.555Will England win on 2026-10-03?
- +$3.79at 0.328Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$2.70at 0.655Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 03:13 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.269999993 | $5.00 |
| 10-22 03:11 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.6699999911 | $12.00 |
| 10-09 23:12 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $1.91 |
| 10-06 08:34 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.425999971 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 08:34 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1799999986 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 08:33 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.459 | $14.34 |
| 10-02 02:27 | Will England win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 02:27 | Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-10-04? | BUY | 0.4799999846 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 02:26 | Will Belgium win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 20:04 | Will Spain win on 2026-09-29? | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 09-27 22:33 | Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.0549999998 | $4.00 |
| 09-27 22:33 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.0041582923 | $3.00 |
| 09-27 22:29 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.32 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 08:17 | Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | BUY | 0.4499999775 | $6.00 |
| 09-18 15:58 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-18? | BUY | 0.9399999995 | $40.00 |