0xcbffcd0e6995a85f4475e6e2def7f2cb14fdf748
- Realised P&L
- $-298.96
- Volume
- $85.0k
- Markets traded
- 180
- Open portfolio
- $365.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded180
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.58at 0.139Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
- +$40.45at 0.110Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$39.20at 0.167Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$31.55at 0.240Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$26.42at 0.204Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 21:52 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.49 |
| 09-09 21:51 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.03 |
| 09-09 21:50 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999987 | $2.50 |
| 09-09 21:49 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 09-09 21:48 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-07 19:30 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.02 |
| 09-07 19:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.012 | $2.99 |
| 09-07 19:14 | Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.4188424702 | $21.00 |
| 09-07 19:13 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.1252082785 | $20.00 |
| 09-07 19:12 | Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $56.32 |
| 08-27 23:24 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.1899998843 | $1.15 |
| 08-27 23:18 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.149999985 | $8.00 |
| 08-27 23:15 | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | SELL | 0.49 | $7.40 |
| 07-31 02:27 | Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.13 |
| 07-31 02:25 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.0040528053 | $0.04 |