0xcb58C474467A6Dca91D16E346F8f0fE87DFC0160-1768538034918
0xcb58c474467a6dca91d16e346f8f0fe87dfc0160
- Realised P&L
- $11.1k
- Volume
- $1.82M
- Markets traded
- 125
- Open portfolio
- $162.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded125
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.1kat 0.617Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
- +$4.9kat 0.650Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
- +$4.2kat 0.659NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.890Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$2.5kat 0.821Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 10:10 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $195.21 |
| 09-16 10:07 | Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.002 | $25.19 |
| 09-09 20:01 | LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.991 | $39.64 |
| 09-08 19:10 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.8k |
| 09-07 17:47 | Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.016 | $128.00 |
| 09-07 17:44 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.985 | $837.82 |
| 09-03 13:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.989 | $13.4k |
| 09-02 11:45 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $5.6k |
| 09-02 11:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.5k |
| 09-02 11:39 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $735.18 |
| 08-28 06:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $14.6k |
| 08-27 03:50 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $579.16 |
| 08-25 14:15 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.969 | $3.1k |
| 08-25 14:13 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.968 | $784.00 |
| 08-23 23:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967498008 | $981.08 |