Aragorn-II
0xc9ad18bc5d11639af167cc879fbc1333e22e79d0
- Realised P&L
- $27.5k
- Volume
- $1.25M
- Markets traded
- 958
- Open portfolio
- $25.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded958
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$976.36at 0.856Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
- +$975.34at 0.765Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$893.65at 0.942Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$869.48at 0.859Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
- +$770.65at 0.860Will Trump attend UFC 319?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 06:08 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 09-16 16:20 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $216.00 |
| 09-15 15:05 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.74 | $370.00 |
| 09-14 19:42 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $99.40 |
| 09-14 19:41 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $80.00 |
| 09-13 10:00 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.96787004 | $483.94 |
| 09-13 09:59 | Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $1.5k |
| 09-13 09:58 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.935 | $654.50 |
| 09-11 13:01 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.1592556 | $79.63 |
| 08-29 13:53 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.977 | $69.16 |
| 08-29 13:52 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.976 | $242.56 |
| 08-11 20:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $96.00 |
| 08-09 19:32 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.93 | $279.00 |
| 08-09 19:31 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $372.00 |
| 08-09 19:28 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $144.45 |