PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Aragorn-II

0xc9ad18bc5d11639af167cc879fbc1333e22e79d0

Realised P&L
$27.4k
Volume
$1.23M
Markets traded
928
Open portfolio
$16.0k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded928
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7760.930$3.0k+$493.02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7530.785$2.4k+$98.50
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? · No0.6880.865$1.6k+$320.47
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.9150.945$1.1k+$35.39
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7610.920$1.0k+$175.00
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7870.855$929.09+$74.10
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6120.635$889.00+$32.01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.7480.895$805.50+$132.50
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8600.915$640.50+$38.50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No0.8700.905$633.50+$24.50
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.6530.875$525.00+$133.00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8370.842$421.00+$2.50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes0.7400.785$392.50+$22.50
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1900.117$352.50$217.50
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? · No0.8900.850$340.00$16.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-19 07:51Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?BUY0.9$900.00
07-13 20:21Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.942$282.60
07-10 13:25Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?BUY0.975$390.00
07-08 18:26Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.976$976.00
07-08 16:55Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.976$2.4k
07-08 11:31Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?BUY0.64$128.00
07-08 11:26Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?BUY0.85$224.03
07-08 11:23Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.55$110.00
07-08 11:22Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?BUY0.85$425.00
07-08 11:22Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?BUY0.988$494.00
07-07 06:56Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.004$1.20
07-06 07:50Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?BUY0.84$14.60
07-06 07:49Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?BUY0.89$356.00
07-06 07:47Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?BUY0.97$97.00
07-06 07:47Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?BUY0.969$96.90