Aragorn-II
0xc9ad18bc5d11639af167cc879fbc1333e22e79d0
- Realised P&L
- $27.4k
- Volume
- $1.23M
- Markets traded
- 928
- Open portfolio
- $16.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded928
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$979.78at 0.855Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
- +$975.34at 0.766Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$893.65at 0.942Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$869.48at 0.859Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
- +$770.65at 0.860Will Trump attend UFC 319?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 07:51 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.9 | $900.00 |
| 07-13 20:21 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.942 | $282.60 |
| 07-10 13:25 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.975 | $390.00 |
| 07-08 18:26 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.976 | $976.00 |
| 07-08 16:55 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.976 | $2.4k |
| 07-08 11:31 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10? | BUY | 0.64 | $128.00 |
| 07-08 11:26 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.85 | $224.03 |
| 07-08 11:23 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.55 | $110.00 |
| 07-08 11:22 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $425.00 |
| 07-08 11:22 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.988 | $494.00 |
| 07-07 06:56 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.20 |
| 07-06 07:50 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $14.60 |
| 07-06 07:49 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | BUY | 0.89 | $356.00 |
| 07-06 07:47 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $97.00 |
| 07-06 07:47 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $96.90 |