PolyBot

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Traders

Aragorn-II

0xc9ad18bc5d11639af167cc879fbc1333e22e79d0

Realised P&L
$27.5k
Volume
$1.25M
Markets traded
958
Open portfolio
$25.3k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded958
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7760.935$3.0k+$509.02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7530.835$2.6k+$253.50
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6600.775$2.0k+$299.01
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes0.8350.935$1.8k+$189.51
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? · No0.6880.875$1.6k+$338.56
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? · No0.9930.997$1.4k+$4.90
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.9150.961$1.2k+$54.02
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7870.855$929.09+$74.10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No0.7480.935$841.50+$168.50
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7610.962$793.23+$165.49
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.9760.991$763.47+$11.11
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.7860.847$762.29+$55.00
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.9350.951$665.35+$10.85
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No0.8700.945$661.50+$52.50
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8600.945$661.50+$59.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 06:08Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.74$148.00
09-16 16:20Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?SELL0.72$216.00
09-15 15:05Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.74$370.00
09-14 19:42Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?SELL0.994$99.40
09-14 19:41Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.4$80.00
09-13 10:00Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?BUY0.96787004$483.94
09-13 09:59Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?BUY0.993$1.5k
09-13 09:58Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.935$654.50
09-11 13:01Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?BUY0.1592556$79.63
08-29 13:53Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.977$69.16
08-29 13:52Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.976$242.56
08-11 20:00US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.64$96.00
08-09 19:32US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?BUY0.93$279.00
08-09 19:31Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?BUY0.93$372.00
08-09 19:28Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.82$144.45