Kageyo
0xc997fbf8dbb17b71489a0802cd06add7db505184
- Realised P&L
- $-323.93
- Volume
- $51.8k
- Markets traded
- 209
- Open portfolio
- $265.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded209
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$128.30at 0.193U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?
- +$82.56at 0.047Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$77.22at 0.200Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?
- +$48.01at 0.092Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
- +$42.78at 0.669Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 14:40 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3960513828 | $5.00 |
| 09-02 14:33 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5099999786 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 14:33 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 14:32 | Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 04-12 11:37 | Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 11:37 | Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 11:34 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 11:31 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | BUY | 0.0491262407 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 11:27 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 11:27 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | BUY | 0.0869000042 | $5.00 |
| 04-12 11:23 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.5299999982 | $15.00 |
| 04-12 11:22 | Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.0643656599 | $4.63 |
| 04-12 11:22 | Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.2269999723 | $4.69 |
| 04-12 11:22 | Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $4.70 |
| 04-12 11:21 | Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | BUY | 0.03266266 | $4.61 |