alfredon996
0xc96a71d464f16a5f7f948cb9d0d34a2f2409702c
- Realised P&L
- $644.67
- Volume
- $58.2k
- Markets traded
- 266
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded266
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.29at 0.847State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
- +$309.28at 0.949Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
- +$97.12at 0.979Will a hurricane form by May 31?
- +$83.65at 0.966US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?
- +$72.88at 0.933Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 17:11 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 10-12 17:07 | Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.225999998 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 01:53 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 01:50 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 01:49 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.8359999793 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 01:49 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8609999895 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 01:48 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9469999185 | $10.00 |
| 10-10 13:33 | Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |
| 10-10 13:32 | Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 10-07 17:41 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 10-07 01:35 | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-06 15:49 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 10-05 18:00 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $9.39 |
| 10-05 15:53 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.50 |
| 10-05 15:06 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $7.30 |