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Traders

alfredon996

0xc96a71d464f16a5f7f948cb9d0d34a2f2409702c

Realised P&L
$644.67
Volume
$58.2k
Markets traded
266
Open portfolio
$3.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded266
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.9170.972$596.53+$33.53
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No0.9470.973$565.29+$15.29
Russia coup attempt in 2026? · No0.9210.966$316.68+$14.68
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9370.979$313.18+$13.18
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9040.945$261.26+$11.26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8580.835$194.57−$5.43
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.7310.925$177.44+$37.17
US x China Military clash before 2027? · No0.9310.976$155.65+$7.05
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9030.967$139.06+$9.06
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · No0.9570.976$102.67+$1.99
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8780.935$64.99+$3.99
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? · No0.9130.924$60.72+$0.72
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No0.7970.885$57.52+$5.72
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.9100.963$52.88+$2.88
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No0.9770.979$48.92+$0.07

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-12 17:115kt meteor strike in 2026?SELL0.16$3.20
10-12 17:07Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?BUY0.225999998$5.00
10-12 01:53Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?BUY0.9399999962$5.00
10-12 01:50Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.9699999981$5.00
10-12 01:49Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?BUY0.8359999793$5.00
10-12 01:49Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.8609999895$5.00
10-12 01:48Modi out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9469999185$10.00
10-10 13:33Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?BUY0.87$4.35
10-10 13:32Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?BUY0.9$4.50
10-07 17:41New pandemic in 2026?BUY0.94$9.39
10-07 01:35Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?BUY0.92$9.20
10-06 15:49Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.25$2.50
10-05 18:00New pandemic in 2026?BUY0.94$9.39
10-05 15:53New pandemic in 2026?BUY0.95$9.50
10-05 15:06Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.73$7.30
Trader alfredon996 · PolyBot Pro