Animus0
0xc8b4fd650784ab51fd40f5a27f9ebe852101d5ba
- Realised P&L
- $2.75
- Volume
- $195.01
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $13.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.285 | $7.34 | −$9.66 |
| Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.385 | $4.15 | +$2.10 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · Yes | 0.353 | 0.070 | $0.79 | −$3.21 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.034 | $0.54 | −$0.48 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.056 | $0.17 | −$0.46 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.024 | $0.16 | −$0.71 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? · Yes | 0.214 | 0.011 | $0.01 | −$0.20 |
| Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,300? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.061 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.40 |
| Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.12at 0.248Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.40at 0.460Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$1.55at 0.512Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
- +$1.02at 0.748Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$-1.55at 0.155Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 13:01 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | SELL | 0.228 | $0.68 |
| 09-21 12:58 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | SELL | 0.405 | $1.22 |
| 09-17 07:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | SELL | 0.104 | $0.21 |
| 09-17 05:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | SELL | 0.122 | $0.24 |
| 09-15 21:28 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.32 |
| 09-15 21:20 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.623 | $3.05 |
| 09-14 10:51 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.8 | $0.80 |
| 09-13 05:52 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.214 | $1.07 |
| 09-11 04:13 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.01 |
| 09-09 07:11 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.38 |
| 09-08 16:16 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,300? | BUY | 0.0979999965 | $1.50 |
| 09-08 00:40 | Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 09-07 16:46 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:41 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,200? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 05:57 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |