0xc8A5Fb6E9e78Cc63Ec344D85fed665f8EaC382bD-1773664201494
0xc8a5fb6e9e78cc63ec344d85fed665f8eac382bd
- Realised P&L
- $-167.47
- Volume
- $36.0k
- Markets traded
- 199
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded199
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.92at 0.614Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?
- +$18.40at 0.590Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?
- +$16.14at 0.782Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
- +$15.74at 0.869Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?
- +$13.32at 0.272Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 06:09 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.99 | $203.34 |
| 10-11 15:45 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.9799666667 | $5.88 |
| 10-11 07:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-06 13:13 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-05 17:53 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 10-05 17:52 | Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.35 | $8.40 |
| 10-05 17:33 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.10 |
| 10-04 10:37 | Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September? | SELL | 0.998 | $74.85 |
| 10-02 11:02 | Will annual inflation be 3.0% in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $74.78 |
| 10-02 11:01 | Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in September? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 10-02 10:58 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $419.58 |
| 10-01 16:39 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.915 | $91.50 |
| 10-01 06:15 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $398.40 |
| 10-01 06:14 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $19.90 |
| 10-01 06:08 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.967 | $96.70 |