tth901022
0xc6cfe418b42d46c3e8c38bf1f16cf6e86afdb265
- Realised P&L
- $-883.69
- Volume
- $40.4k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$98.91at 0.930Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$94.53at 0.510Lula participates in debate before first round?
- +$80.60at 0.270Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- +$72.91at 0.966Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
- +$63.75at 0.904Trump bans China from buying US farmland?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:43 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.972 | $97.20 |
| 10-02 12:41 | Lula participates in debate before first round? | SELL | 0.98332765 | $196.67 |
| 09-23 13:31 | Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more? | BUY | 0.64 | $50.00 |
| 09-23 13:28 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31? | BUY | 0.4218094665 | $80.00 |
| 09-23 13:26 | Lula participates in debate before first round? | BUY | 0.5 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 08:00 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | SELL | 0.995 | $212.75 |
| 09-19 14:31 | Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999995 | $150.00 |
| 09-16 12:04 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | BUY | 0.9353233829 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 11:29 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.9502695932 | $41.35 |
| 09-16 11:29 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.9677302893 | $528.16 |
| 09-08 13:11 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999998 | $80.00 |
| 09-08 13:04 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.900990991 | $100.00 |
| 09-08 12:34 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $400.00 |
| 09-08 12:33 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999976 | $300.00 |
| 09-08 12:31 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.961 | $605.43 |