42424242
0xc65a6513fe24213f5ceff073ff49b34f6150a0cb
- Realised P&L
- $-49.82
- Volume
- $15.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $99.62
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.145 | $51.26 | −$12.37 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.029 | $31.76 | −$3.24 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.075 | $8.33 | −$1.67 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.037 | $8.27 | −$1.73 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? · No | 0.129 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.33 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.96 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.70 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.02at 0.871Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:00 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 12:00 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? | BUY | 0.0447541653 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 11:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $20.03 |
| 09-16 11:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $84.85 |
| 09-16 11:53 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.031408004 | $35.00 |
| 02-28 19:18 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.1879998875 | $1.33 |
| 02-28 18:42 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 17:51 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.12299998 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 17:51 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | SELL | 0.875 | $5.02 |
| 02-28 17:50 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.870999997 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 17:47 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.014 | $5.00 |
| 02-28 17:44 | Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | BUY | 0.1009999829 | $5.00 |
| 02-02 19:48 | US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.0129999937 | $2.00 |
| 01-30 16:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.96 |
| 01-30 01:51 | Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? | BUY | 0.006 | $5.00 |