0xc64426660e7D8701377B9d8329fBf28fe8c6A714-1773856029351
0xc64426660e7d8701377b9d8329fbf28fe8c6a714
- Realised P&L
- $0.26
- Volume
- $418.36
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $7.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.570 | 0.555 | $2.92 | −$0.08 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.935 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.945 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · No | 0.810 | 0.650 | $0.80 | −$0.20 |
| António Guterres out by December 31? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.260 | $0.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.011 | $0.30 | −$0.70 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? · No | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.31at 0.172Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.33at 0.600US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$1.06at 0.450Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$0.53at 0.657Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
- +$0.43at 0.700US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-14 22:29 | Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.14 |
| 07-14 22:24 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.581 | $3.38 |
| 06-18 21:59 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.128 | $1.15 |
| 06-18 21:59 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.11 |
| 06-17 20:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $1.08 |
| 06-17 20:21 | Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? | SELL | 0.987 | $1.09 |
| 06-17 20:21 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.833 | $2.10 |
| 06-17 20:20 | Will Walmart acquire TikTok? | SELL | 0.984 | $2.12 |
| 06-17 20:20 | Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.28 |
| 06-16 23:46 | Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.65 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 23:43 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0070000001 | $1.00 |
| 06-16 23:42 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.67 | $2.16 |
| 06-02 05:15 | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 05:13 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 05-26 13:01 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.28 |