lizgon
0xc528ffbbf2d342b98ea340057abe80bfb162007c
- Realised P&L
- $75.56
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 295
- Open portfolio
- $68.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded295
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.981 | $40.43 | +$0.43 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.945 | $6.22 | +$1.22 |
| Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.950 | $5.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.914 | 0.971 | $5.31 | +$0.31 |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.975 | $5.23 | +$0.23 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No | 0.967 | 0.992 | $5.13 | +$0.13 |
| Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.032 | $0.62 | −$4.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.95at 0.726Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
- +$131.49at 0.807Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
- +$69.56at 0.782Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
- +$54.39at 0.479XRP Up or Down - January 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
- +$51.91at 0.556Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:13 | Will CZ post 20-39 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $40.00 |
| 10-14 01:28 | O/U 0.5 Rounds | BUY | 0.9899999971 | $40.47 |
| 10-12 13:47 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 31 million or more views on day 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.46 |
| 10-09 00:15 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $40.30 |
| 10-06 13:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.997 | $39.20 |
| 10-02 14:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.9889999998 | $39.76 |
| 09-29 12:59 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 24 million views on day 3? | BUY | 0.999 | $38.75 |
| 09-28 14:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on September 28? | BUY | 0.986 | $39.19 |
| 09-27 12:10 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.997 | $39.10 |
| 09-15 11:58 | Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9788534923 | $38.29 |
| 09-07 13:36 | Will MrBeast's latest video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.998 | $38.24 |
| 09-06 07:50 | KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes | BUY | 0.9969998315 | $5.22 |
| 09-06 07:50 | Human moon landing in 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $5.23 |
| 09-06 07:49 | KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes | BUY | 0.9959999754 | $32.88 |
| 08-30 09:45 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $31.46 |