PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

bdgurdj

0xc4186d7e78f73258cba6e7d9e7f965a4df7a17c7

Realised P&L
$21.30
Volume
$3.8k
Markets traded
23
Open portfolio
$253.55

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded23
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample11 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · No0.9400.962$48.10+$1.10
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · No0.9000.956$47.77+$2.77
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.8391.000$40.00+$6.44
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1601.000$40.00+$33.60
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.9520.996$34.23+$1.50
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · No0.6800.790$31.60+$4.40
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · Yes0.3500.175$5.25$5.25
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0070.006$3.60$0.60
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0050.005$3.00+$0.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$6.40
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No0.8390.000$0.00$33.56
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET · Down0.5400.000$0.00$21.27
Suns vs. Heat · Suns0.5000.000$0.00$24.00
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) · fnatic0.7200.000$0.00$28.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-18 09:37Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ETBUY0.54$20.93
03-18 09:31Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ETBUY0.53$17.97
01-19 10:14Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.88$88.00
01-13 17:21Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3)BUY0.72$19.60
01-13 17:19Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.5$94.54
01-13 17:19Suns vs. HeatBUY0.5$24.00