PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

criollo2

0xc0b948bed28356622ebcce46f9060bb713134fa7

Realised P&L
$-3.7k
Volume
$642.0k
Markets traded
318
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded318
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2000.145$307.35−$116.58
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes0.2400.185$147.00−$43.70
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.6600.605$94.36−$8.58
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0220.037$75.71+$30.85
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.1070.033$64.36−$147.52
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.3400.235$48.38−$21.62
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0750.035$46.39−$53.02
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes0.2200.096$45.76−$59.65
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? · Yes0.2030.121$41.90−$28.10
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31? · Yes0.3100.255$40.59−$8.75
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? · No0.7200.635$32.68−$4.38
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? · No0.4700.325$30.90−$13.79
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? · Yes0.1700.150$23.41−$3.12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.4500.365$18.84−$4.39
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? · Yes0.1700.046$15.01−$39.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 12:38Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?SELL0.27$0.29
10-31 03:21Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.4096565438$994.31
10-31 03:21Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.5887016294$999.33
10-31 03:09Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.5890963496$1.0k
10-31 03:08Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.4119999998$1000.00
10-30 23:02US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?SELL0.6$2.92
10-26 21:47Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?SELL0.171310616$9.15
10-26 21:44Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.048244978$5.91
10-26 21:43Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?SELL0.0504254798$6.17
10-26 21:42Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?SELL0.25$17.18
10-02 12:33Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?SELL0.972$6.08
09-29 11:51Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?SELL0.74$14.80
09-18 19:02Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?SELL0.93$322.62
09-18 18:58Xi Jinping out before 2027?SELL0.962$1.0k
09-18 13:12US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.55$0.81