criollo2
0xc0b948bed28356622ebcce46f9060bb713134fa7
- Realised P&L
- $-3.7k
- Volume
- $642.0k
- Markets traded
- 318
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded318
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.51at 0.230US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$41.85at 0.390Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
- +$38.79at 0.710Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$35.01at 0.420US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$34.17at 0.180Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 12:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $0.29 |
| 10-31 03:21 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.4096565438 | $994.31 |
| 10-31 03:21 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.5887016294 | $999.33 |
| 10-31 03:09 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5890963496 | $1.0k |
| 10-31 03:08 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4119999998 | $1000.00 |
| 10-30 23:02 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? | SELL | 0.6 | $2.92 |
| 10-26 21:47 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | SELL | 0.171310616 | $9.15 |
| 10-26 21:44 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.048244978 | $5.91 |
| 10-26 21:43 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0504254798 | $6.17 |
| 10-26 21:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.25 | $17.18 |
| 10-02 12:33 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.972 | $6.08 |
| 09-29 11:51 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 09-18 19:02 | Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $322.62 |
| 09-18 18:58 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.962 | $1.0k |
| 09-18 13:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.81 |