0xbcaA5f089CFa7c9a2e008e3818C10476342e38cf-1781463274093
0xbcaa5f089cfa7c9a2e008e3818c10476342e38cf
- Realised P&L
- $7.91
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $34.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.022 | $17.17 | −$75.47 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.100 | $5.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.201 | $4.16 | +$0.16 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.014 | $4.12 | −$0.88 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.105 | $3.26 | −$5.74 |
| Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · No | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.01 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$27.04at 0.270US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:33 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.1308196168 | $42.64 |
| 09-17 04:09 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.1099999999 | $50.00 |
| 08-09 16:07 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999842 | $9.00 |
| 08-09 16:03 | Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 06-28 14:02 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1929999667 | $4.00 |
| 06-28 14:02 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0169999966 | $5.00 |
| 06-28 14:01 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? | BUY | 0.0531147378 | $3.00 |
| 06-28 14:00 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0270000002 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 14:46 | Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | BUY | 0.0248837927 | $2.00 |
| 06-24 14:43 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0179999942 | $3.00 |
| 06-15 07:04 | Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.01 |
| 06-15 07:01 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999806 | $10.00 |
| 06-15 07:00 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |