willin14
0xbbf6ebc15b43bca81bbe1fc4b42a4949781c3e76
- Realised P&L
- $117.29
- Volume
- $39.1k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $430.56
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $99.65 | +$0.05 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · No | 0.928 | 0.923 | $92.35 | −$0.45 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.935 | $46.75 | −$0.25 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? · No | 0.940 | 0.930 | $46.50 | −$0.50 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.860 | $43.00 | −$0.50 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? · Yes | 0.993 | 0.990 | $35.64 | −$0.11 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.993 | 0.984 | $29.52 | −$0.27 |
| Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? · No | 0.927 | 0.923 | $27.70 | −$0.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.315 | $9.45 | −$7.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$180.00at 0.500Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$51.00at 0.490Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?
- +$23.96at 0.796Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
- +$14.32at 0.864Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$8.20at 0.959Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 02:56 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | BUY | 0.993 | $35.75 |
| 09-23 02:55 | Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? | BUY | 0.927 | $27.81 |
| 09-23 02:52 | Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.928 | $92.80 |
| 09-23 02:36 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 09-23 02:35 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $43.50 |
| 09-22 03:46 | Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September? | BUY | 0.55 | $16.49 |
| 09-22 03:37 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $47.00 |
| 09-22 03:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $99.60 |
| 09-22 03:05 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.993 | $29.79 |
| 09-22 02:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 12°C or below on September 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $7.59 |
| 09-22 02:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 14°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.85 |
| 09-18 09:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on September 18? | BUY | 0.9975117143 | $104.74 |
| 09-18 08:53 | Will the lowest temperature in Jeddah be 25°C or below on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 09-18 08:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Jinan be 15°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9787272727 | $13.46 |
| 09-18 08:46 | Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.99 |