PickyF
0xb5aa80fc3ebec3317e2a5586f36f85781465c200
- Realised P&L
- $441.62
- Volume
- $153.6k
- Markets traded
- 505
- Open portfolio
- $393.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded505
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$334.44at 0.071Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$127.21at 0.187Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
- +$101.48at 0.216Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$94.76at 0.360Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$83.55at 0.546Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 16:27 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.099 | $0.01 |
| 09-01 16:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $12.25 |
| 08-30 16:54 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 29 to August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.00 |
| 08-29 18:13 | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.106 | $8.68 |
| 08-28 20:33 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $8.40 |
| 08-28 20:26 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.26 | $10.40 |
| 08-28 20:19 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.26 | $13.00 |
| 08-24 21:08 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.073 | $7.30 |
| 08-24 21:03 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.1200824004 | $13.09 |
| 08-21 21:18 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.10842125 | $8.67 |
| 08-21 20:20 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $31.20 |
| 08-21 15:44 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.64 | $38.40 |
| 08-21 13:27 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.95 |
| 08-21 07:28 | Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? | BUY | 0.64 | $25.60 |
| 08-21 02:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.153 | $6.12 |