PickyF
0xb5aa80fc3ebec3317e2a5586f36f85781465c200
- Realised P&L
- $701.17
- Volume
- $144.2k
- Markets traded
- 471
- Open portfolio
- $147.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded471
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$334.44at 0.071Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
- +$127.21at 0.187Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
- +$101.48at 0.216Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
- +$94.76at 0.360Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$83.55at 0.546Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-06 20:46 | Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? | BUY | 0.93 | $46.50 |
| 06-22 16:18 | Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 06-22 16:17 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.026 | $10.64 |
| 06-22 02:45 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.032 | $3.49 |
| 06-22 02:43 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $3.10 |
| 06-19 19:28 | Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.97 |
| 06-18 02:08 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY | 0.47 | $37.60 |
| 06-10 18:23 | Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY | 0.04 | $2.74 |
| 06-08 22:12 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.112 | $13.44 |
| 06-07 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 05-26 18:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.62 | $37.20 |
| 05-26 03:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.61 | $10.98 |
| 05-25 12:43 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $23.50 |
| 05-24 00:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.4 | $32.00 |
| 05-21 16:20 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.047 | $0.56 |