0xb4fc4caddfcf21de9233d7d81e66eb1b67209fcf
- Realised P&L
- $0.53
- Volume
- $123.54
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $17.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.955 | $3.24 | +$1.24 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.855 | $2.80 | +$0.80 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.391 | $2.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? · No | 0.460 | 0.515 | $2.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.835 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.640 | $2.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.330 | $1.83 | −$0.17 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.320 | 0.135 | $0.84 | −$1.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.55at 0.440Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.440Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 08:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3419999001 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:04 | Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:03 | Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? | BUY | 0.3599999208 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:00 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 15:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 07:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:28 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:28 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:27 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:14 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 20:13 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 12:12 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |