rmnrbshjio
0xb4d7e65d51c1f3a7951c84f0f9b7bed7e939f73a
- Realised P&L
- $-338.74
- Volume
- $206.2k
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $81.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.780 | $66.34 | +$56.40 |
| Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.082 | $7.54 | −$2.21 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.008 | $3.89 | −$5.83 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.006 | $3.25 | −$8.25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET · Up | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? · Anthropic | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.20 |
| Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.78 |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.36 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.64 |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$489.20at 0.021Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
- +$0.03at 0.001Will the US strike Somalia next?
- +$-0.00at 0.020Will Google Gemini be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?
- +$-0.60at 0.110Canva IPO before 2027?
- +$-1.08at 0.002Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 05:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 06-30 05:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $5.00 |
| 06-18 04:57 | Canva IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.32 |
| 06-14 20:55 | Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30? | BUY | 0.031 | $4.16 |
| 06-14 20:43 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? | BUY | 0.1026633333 | $18.48 |
| 06-11 19:48 | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 19:41 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.06 |
| 06-11 19:39 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | BUY | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 05-27 03:04 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 05-27 03:04 | GTA VI released before June 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $20.00 |
| 03-15 14:30 | Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.03 | $3.78 |
| 03-15 14:25 | Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in March? | BUY | 0.0193734615 | $2.01 |
| 03-02 03:40 | Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? | BUY | 0.0048063488 | $3.38 |
| 02-26 08:00 | Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $4.99 |
| 02-25 08:51 | Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.00463716 | $4.64 |