0xB4BA5CA84E9B4818566792Ac3A7c4d0CB6a04cEd-1776194410634
0xb4ba5ca84e9b4818566792ac3a7c4d0cb6a04ced
- Realised P&L
- $-367.24
- Volume
- $38.2k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$348.25at 0.525Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$178.19at 0.532Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?
- +$123.48at 0.526Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
- +$119.71at 0.166Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$81.52at 0.776Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 18:54 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999976 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 20:15 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? | BUY | 0.897 | $69.81 |
| 07-10 15:08 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.75 |
| 07-10 14:53 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 07-10 14:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.8217821779 | $200.00 |
| 07-07 20:22 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | BUY | 0.5991707465 | $100.00 |
| 07-07 20:17 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | BUY | 0.82 | $164.00 |
| 07-07 20:02 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $86.54 |
| 07-04 12:02 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $20.65 |
| 07-02 17:34 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.7624999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 17:33 | Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8799999996 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 16:31 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.7382282454 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 16:25 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 13:29 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.64 | $21.12 |
| 07-01 20:06 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $120.00 |