PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xb29484920f6a499157327c1473e7ea8ffd1fa90c

Realised P&L
$6.88
Volume
$640.87
Markets traded
241
Open portfolio
$166.58

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded241
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration3.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.9330.945$3.04+$0.04
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.9060.865$2.86$0.14
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5490.515$2.81$0.19
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · No0.7420.951$2.56+$0.56
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? · OpenAI0.0510.059$2.28+$0.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8620.945$2.19+$0.19
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · No0.9330.975$2.09+$0.09
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? · No0.9360.976$2.08+$0.08
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes0.9600.998$2.08+$0.08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No0.9410.961$2.04+$0.04
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No0.9450.958$2.03+$0.03
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes0.8850.893$2.02+$0.02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8350.835$2.00+$0.00
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? · No0.9300.925$1.99$0.01
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? · No0.8820.876$1.99$0.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-09 07:14Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.9869992459$1.00
09-07 19:16Netanyahu out by end of 2026?BUY0.5$1.00
09-06 05:16Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?BUY0.9859999882$1.00
09-06 05:16Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.9299997117$1.00
09-06 05:15Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?BUY0.92$1.00
09-06 05:14OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?BUY0.8299992198$1.00
09-06 05:13Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in September?BUY0.896999173$1.00
09-05 19:24Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?BUY0.962999557$1.00
09-05 19:23US strike on Mexico by December 31?BUY0.91$1.00
09-05 19:23Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?BUY0.3899998479$1.00
09-05 11:47Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.6699999196$1.00
09-05 11:46Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?BUY0.0309999705$1.00
09-05 11:45UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?BUY0.9519991546$1.00
09-05 11:45Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.9559999694$1.00
09-05 11:45US recession by end of 2026?BUY0.9399996992$1.00