PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xb29484920f6a499157327c1473e7ea8ffd1fa90c

Realised P&L
$4.89
Volume
$426.09
Markets traded
184
Open portfolio
$105.58

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded184
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration53.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration3.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes0.9600.973$2.03+$0.03
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? · Yes0.8850.888$2.01+$0.01
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · No0.9300.915$1.97$0.03
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? · No0.9410.922$1.96$0.04
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.9150.885$1.93$0.07
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? · No0.5200.987$1.90+$0.90
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.5400.785$1.45+$0.45
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? · No0.5700.825$1.45+$0.45
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? · No0.7200.991$1.38+$0.38
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes0.5800.790$1.36+$0.36
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? · No0.8400.925$1.21+$0.11
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · No0.6780.821$1.21+$0.21
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.6100.735$1.20+$0.20
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.5400.610$1.13+$0.13
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? · No0.7900.885$1.12+$0.12

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 12:13Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?BUY0.6899999586$1.00
08-02 12:13Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.0409999622$1.00
07-26 15:32Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?BUY0.6$1.00
07-26 07:01Modi out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0749999325$1.00
07-26 03:46US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?BUY0.54$1.00
07-26 03:46US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.5699994984$1.00
07-22 18:20Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?BUY0.8699999913$1.00
07-22 18:19Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?BUY0.849999915$1.00
07-19 15:04Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.7349999732$19.76
07-19 15:04Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?BUY0.7349999938$2.97
07-19 09:49Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.7899999921$1.00
07-19 09:49Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?BUY0.9319999441$1.00
07-18 16:29Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9709999981$1.00
07-17 10:08ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?BUY0.64$1.00
07-17 10:06Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?BUY0.5299998781$1.00
Trader 0xb294…a90c · PolyBot