PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

PenguPrime

0xaff50100ad36b68e56cb1e1f0482b5c6e06c44cb

Realised P&L
$-288.83
Volume
$14.3k
Markets traded
120
Open portfolio
$218.30

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded120
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration61.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2130.140$133.72$69.54
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · Yes0.1530.145$80.55$4.49
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? · Yes0.1640.065$4.03$6.13
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? · Yes0.2300.000$0.00$5.00
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$4.75
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Yes0.0410.000$0.00$3.58
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? · Yes0.0440.000$0.00$15.92
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? · Yes0.0750.000$0.00$6.57
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days? · Yes0.5500.000$0.00$11.00
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00$2.50
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? · Yes0.1600.000$0.00$5.00
Will Sandman win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$4.40
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? · No0.0450.000$0.00$5.63
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? · No0.4100.000$0.00$10.25
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$3.93

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-21 11:05Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.21$13.02
09-15 22:30Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?BUY0.18$2.16
09-11 22:29Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.17$17.68
05-06 12:01Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?BUY0.2299999692$5.00
05-05 12:01Iran closes its airspace by May 8?BUY0.17$5.10
05-04 22:14Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?BUY0.036$3.96
04-28 14:37Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?BUY0.1557973661$20.00
04-22 12:34Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?BUY0.1499999976$50.00
03-02 17:27Will Hillary say "Daughter" during her Epstein testimony?BUY0.0489999773$2.00
03-02 17:27Will Hillary say "Island" during her Epstein testimony?BUY0.0485148425$5.00
03-02 17:26Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?BUY0.023999977$1.00
03-02 17:26Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?BUY0.0177108903$1.00
03-02 17:26Will Bill Clinton say "Secretary" during his Epstein testimony?BUY0.0185675161$1.00
03-02 17:26Will Bill Clinton say "Daughter" during his Epstein testimony?BUY0.0571428571$2.00
01-30 22:46US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?BUY0.025$2.50