nosolution
0xad33163c32a6ba76a5508bb18eaafaa9a9051b5d
- Realised P&L
- $23.73
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.542 | 0.735 | $677.64 | +$177.64 |
| Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.729 | 0.900 | $123.38 | +$23.38 |
| Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.880 | 0.945 | $107.40 | +$7.40 |
| Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.935 | $101.79 | +$1.79 |
| Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.830 | $101.28 | +$1.28 |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.790 | $58.96 | +$8.96 |
| Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.925 | $53.16 | +$3.16 |
| Will AI solve the twin prime conjecture in 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.920 | $50.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $50.27 | +$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.73at 0.927Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 09:57 | Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? | BUY | 0.9199999845 | $50.00 |
| 10-04 09:56 | Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999886 | $50.00 |
| 10-04 09:56 | Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999993 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 07:59 | Will AI solve the twin prime conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 07:58 | Will AI solve Beal's conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 07:58 | Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.7499999963 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 07:57 | Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999971 | $50.00 |
| 09-28 17:01 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9599999969 | $200.00 |
| 09-17 07:19 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-16 09:53 | Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 09:52 | Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026? | BUY | 0.9171750904 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 09:51 | Will AI solve the strong Goldbach conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999988 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 09:50 | Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.8699999988 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 09:49 | Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $50.00 |
| 09-16 09:42 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5423267638 | $500.00 |