0xace51e7bfefc8b12f91338832be8dbb5daf07083
- Realised P&L
- $-71.46
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 151
- Open portfolio
- $22.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded151
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.845 | $11.74 | +$1.74 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.346 | 0.670 | $4.65 | +$2.25 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.800 | $2.42 | +$0.39 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.280 | $1.69 | +$0.42 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.525 | $1.39 | −$0.38 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.081 | $0.46 | −$1.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$130.50at 0.248Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?
- +$57.49at 0.267Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
- +$49.19at 0.462Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?
- +$38.40at 0.401Spread: France (-1.5)
- +$35.76at 0.563Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 08:48 | Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-08-29? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 08-24 05:38 | AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.51 | $11.73 |
| 08-23 05:31 | Counter-Strike: Just Players vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stage | BUY | 0.51 | $11.22 |
| 08-15 05:05 | UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims) | BUY | 0.51 | $11.22 |
| 08-12 20:46 | LoL: Bubliki vs Dominion Goblins (BO3) - LPLOL Group Stage | BUY | 0.53 | $11.66 |
| 08-12 12:17 | Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | SELL | 0.996 | $19.92 |
| 08-11 10:03 | FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.52 | $11.44 |
| 08-10 13:20 | LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | BUY | 0.66 | $11.22 |
| 08-10 12:17 | Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? | BUY | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 07-30 16:36 | Will the Washington Nationals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | SELL | 0.84 | $10.08 |
| 07-29 07:08 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.209999871 | $1.27 |
| 07-29 07:08 | Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2669999132 | $1.52 |
| 07-29 07:08 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699998864 | $1.77 |
| 07-29 07:08 | Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.6699999472 | $2.03 |
| 07-29 07:08 | Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.3459999149 | $2.40 |