welfare
0xa9ea2f62ceefe3014769ceb44125030d6d0f7d1e
- Realised P&L
- $-251.42
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $35.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 · Over | 0.520 | 0.910 | $8.75 | +$3.75 |
| Spread: Bills (-4.5) · Bills | 0.530 | 0.885 | $8.35 | +$3.35 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.765 | $5.03 | +$0.03 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.602 | 0.601 | $4.99 | −$0.01 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · No | 0.200 | 0.165 | $4.13 | −$0.88 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.295 | $3.60 | −$1.40 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? · Yes | 0.158 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$177.54 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.91 |
| Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad Schimel · Schimel | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.69at 0.141Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
- +$4.97at 0.552Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
- +$4.40at 0.630Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
- +$1.36at 0.607Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
- +$-0.95at 0.437XRP Up or Down - September 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:33 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:55 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7599999696 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6019999884 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 14:52 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:50 | Lions vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $5.00 |
| 09-17 14:50 | Spread: Bills (-4.5) | BUY | 0.5299999587 | $5.00 |
| 09-15 21:41 | XRP Up or Down - September 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | SELL | 0.25 | $1.19 |
| 09-15 21:38 | XRP Up or Down - September 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 16:20 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) | BUY | 0.539999964 | $6.00 |
| 09-15 16:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | SELL | 0.79 | $6.26 |
| 09-15 16:16 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.5899999546 | $4.68 |
| 09-15 16:11 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1399999971 | $4.80 |
| 09-15 16:11 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1399999993 | $4.11 |
| 09-15 16:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET | SELL | 0.92 | $14.19 |