bifurcatio
0xa9ea2f23772e0e374598b895194ec404bf7d1043
- Realised P&L
- $-4.1k
- Volume
- $364.4k
- Markets traded
- 147
- Open portfolio
- $176.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded147
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.876Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17?
- +$691.04at 0.906Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19?
- +$471.95at 0.887Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 19?
- +$447.52at 0.549Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?
- +$405.86at 0.638Dogecoin above $0.41 on December 6?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 22:58 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.9 | $6.6k |
| 10-16 22:56 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 19? | BUY | 0.8795779477 | $3.7k |
| 10-16 00:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 16? | BUY | 0.9040296595 | $1.2k |
| 10-16 00:23 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5159399379 | $25.4k |
| 10-16 00:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.8676019157 | $7.4k |
| 10-16 00:16 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 22? | BUY | 0.9499935525 | $7.4k |
| 10-16 00:12 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.9037591795 | $2.9k |
| 10-16 00:12 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.6k |
| 10-16 00:08 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8 | $7.2k |
| 10-15 23:50 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.52 | $156.00 |
| 10-15 23:49 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.52 | $612.04 |
| 10-15 23:49 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.52 | $843.09 |
| 10-15 23:48 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.5427131783 | $70.01 |
| 10-15 23:47 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 10-15 23:47 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | SELL | 0.54 | $214.92 |