PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

KiraHK1

0xa87fd530e77d3b30a9148da21e248bf9f1ab864d

Realised P&L
$-921.26
Volume
$144.1k
Markets traded
1,187
Open portfolio
$2.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,187
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration66.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7160.795$293.64+$29.32
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? · Yes0.8800.913$152.23+$5.58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.4920.430$127.16$18.24
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? · No0.9200.981$69.34+$4.30
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9300.945$68.19+$1.08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.7640.775$44.82+$0.64
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? · Yes0.5400.745$30.71+$8.46
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No0.8470.975$29.45+$3.86
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Yes0.4280.695$29.14+$11.20
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · No0.5210.400$27.63$8.35
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes0.5730.680$26.69+$4.18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No0.6530.825$25.81+$5.38
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No0.6850.410$24.33$16.34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No0.6100.520$22.57$3.93
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.8500.890$22.09+$0.99

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-03 06:34Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?SELL0.983$4.92
08-03 06:07Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 60m by August 31?SELL0.98$8.93
08-03 06:07Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?SELL0.97$11.12
08-03 06:07Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?SELL0.985$9.96
08-03 06:07Will United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?SELL0.989$4.95
08-03 06:00Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 2?SELL0.999$3.20
08-02 19:08Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 2?SELL0.984$4.92
08-02 19:08Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 2?SELL0.999$4.99
08-02 19:08Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 2?SELL0.999$5.00
08-02 19:08Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 2?SELL0.999$5.00
08-02 09:18Will United Russia win the next Oryol Oblast Parliament elections?SELL0.993$4.96
08-02 08:47Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 1, 2026?SELL0.993$4.96
08-02 08:47Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?SELL0.999$6.31
08-02 08:46Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?SELL0.999$5.00
08-01 17:36Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?SELL0.989$4.95