someone2026
0xa7ce6905990451685b70082424ac9129418d6398
- Realised P&L
- $48.2k
- Volume
- $1.70M
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $217.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.899 | 0.963 | $57.8k | +$3.8k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.905 | 0.981 | $40.4k | +$3.1k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.834 | 0.895 | $38.0k | +$2.6k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.919 | 0.981 | $29.7k | +$1.9k |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.857 | 0.983 | $29.5k | +$3.8k |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.415 | 0.512 | $21.8k | +$4.1k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.221 | $141.18 | −$0.76 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.981 | $4.97 | +$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$896.99 |
| Will Binance be accused of insider trading? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$280.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.9kat 0.545Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.8kat 0.950Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
- +$1.6kat 0.860Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
- +$984.53at 0.970US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
- +$437.99at 0.697Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-29 18:56 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.82 | $34.8k |
| 06-25 22:06 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.3821806871 | $1.2k |
| 06-25 22:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.982 | $1.2k |
| 06-25 22:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.982 | $280.72 |
| 06-25 22:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.982 | $1.6k |
| 06-25 22:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.982 | $20.9k |
| 06-25 22:03 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.982 | $46.8k |
| 05-29 14:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $587.57 |
| 03-18 13:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8990558684 | $49.0k |
| 03-09 16:39 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | BUY | 0.9366879085 | $1.4k |
| 03-09 15:13 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.2100581414 | $141.12 |
| 03-09 15:10 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | BUY | 0.921 | $27.63 |
| 03-09 15:09 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | BUY | 0.9482607934 | $3.7k |
| 03-04 07:42 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.2115161506 | $1.9k |
| 03-03 20:01 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.415 | $76.36 |