fphfph
0xa6f143322895fb3b33be17753e1be6a3aa4f2994
- Realised P&L
- $-42.20
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 5
- Open portfolio
- $212.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded5
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.179 | 0.135 | $124.39 | −$40.61 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.145 | $43.86 | −$4.54 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.145 | $31.52 | −$18.48 |
| Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.039 | $12.62 | −$6.38 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.20 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.60 |
| 08-07 17:45 | Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? | BUY | 0.058738359 | $19.00 |
| 07-27 15:30 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1722877073 | $25.00 |
| 07-27 15:22 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1660127055 | $100.00 |
| 06-16 21:46 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.20 |
| 06-11 15:18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999954 | $41.00 |
| 06-07 16:22 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999962 | $40.00 |
| 06-07 16:22 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | BUY | 0.2299999968 | $50.00 |
| 06-07 16:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |