Teshub
0xa5d3be6c4ef51b9e5f69b21be3e8c4a692c4a6c6
- Realised P&L
- $14.2k
- Volume
- $214.6k
- Markets traded
- 165
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded165
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.3kat 0.172Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.4kat 0.503Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?
- +$1.8kat 0.543Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?
- +$1.2kat 0.341Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.005Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 09:51 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.67 | $129.98 |
| 10-31 09:50 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.981 | $129.66 |
| 10-27 09:44 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.72 | $192.24 |
| 10-27 09:03 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.959 | $192.01 |
| 10-27 06:22 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7 | $14.70 |
| 10-26 15:24 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.769893125 | $492.73 |
| 10-26 15:22 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.76 | $390.57 |
| 10-26 13:47 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7570971429 | $26.50 |
| 10-26 11:39 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.72 | $23.76 |
| 10-26 11:33 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.72 | $53.28 |
| 10-26 10:49 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.71 | $59.64 |
| 10-25 22:24 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.895 | $8.05 |
| 10-25 22:23 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.8997873099 | $75.73 |
| 10-25 22:17 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.9258247391 | $118.86 |
| 10-25 22:15 | Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election? | BUY | 0.9197700828 | $174.38 |