PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Rougrot

0xa4e380c8e86477cf3918826aab29ada08a46b39e

Realised P&L
$-889.44
Volume
$187.9k
Markets traded
1,054
Open portfolio
$4.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,054
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration94.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.3130.625$4.6k+$2.3k
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes0.2770.555$39.77+$19.93
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? · Yes0.1170.294$36.52+$21.91
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pará? · Yes0.0730.146$20.00+$10.00
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0740.293$19.85+$14.85
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? · Yes0.2500.560$17.61+$9.75
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.4420.621$14.67+$4.22
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? · No0.4970.730$14.58+$4.65
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? · Yes0.1200.805$13.42+$11.42
Will Gustavo Gayer win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election? · Yes0.1700.445$13.09+$8.09
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amazonas? · Yes0.2100.220$10.49+$0.49
Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? · Yes0.1470.166$9.67+$1.08
Will LOS Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2 · Yes0.4250.579$6.80+$1.80
Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election? · Yes0.3600.795$6.58+$3.60
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31? · No0.3900.390$5.00+$0.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-02 02:46Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.6029999962$36.83
10-02 00:10Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?SELL0.8929713914$13.73
10-02 00:08Lula participates in debate before first round?SELL0.977$23.80
09-29 04:09Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?BUY0.1469999979$8.59
09-29 04:07Lula participates in debate before first round?SELL0.7287260035$8.35
09-27 20:25Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.5789999998$208.05
09-27 20:22LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsSELL0.999$188.48
09-27 19:52LoL: LOS vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL PlayoffsBUY0.529999998$100.00
09-27 19:46Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.578$81.68
09-27 18:39LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 4 WinnerBUY0.5699999967$50.00
09-27 18:37Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.574$82.77
09-27 17:30LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 3 WinnerBUY0.5599999955$20.00
09-27 16:55Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.4499999438$2.00
09-27 16:51Lula participates in debate before first round?BUY0.1699999983$3.00
09-27 16:41Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.572$41.66