IbnKhaldun
0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c
- Realised P&L
- $11.4k
- Volume
- $1.95M
- Markets traded
- 350
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded350
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.644US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$5.7kat 0.390Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$3.5kat 0.799Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$3.3kat 0.448US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.069Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 16:31 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 09-15 19:08 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 18:29 | Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 09-14 18:21 | Will AI solve Legendre's conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $400.00 |
| 09-13 20:28 | Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026? | BUY | 0.9639999994 | $30.00 |
| 09-13 20:27 | Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $142.00 |
| 09-13 10:42 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $90.30 |
| 09-12 23:05 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 20:21 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.012 | $0.78 |
| 09-06 11:06 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.493 | $25.69 |
| 09-06 11:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $384.00 |
| 09-05 06:32 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999748 | $4.00 |
| 09-04 21:35 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5129999999 | $50.00 |
| 09-03 13:33 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $3.84 |
| 09-03 01:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |