PolyBot

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Traders

IbnKhaldun

0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c

Realised P&L
$11.9k
Volume
$1.97M
Markets traded
367
Open portfolio
$3.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded367
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will AI solve Legendre's conjecture in 2026? · No0.7500.960$512.00+$112.00
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · No0.8900.890$356.01+$0.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · No0.6400.725$290.00+$34.00
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8710.925$244.18+$14.18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No0.8400.945$226.80+$25.20
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.022$225.00−$875.00
Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1370.105$209.89−$63.96
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · No0.8300.840$168.00+$2.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.5600.865$154.46+$54.46
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.5110.572$147.27+$15.63
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? · Yes0.7000.685$137.00−$3.00
Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026? · No0.7100.925$129.50+$30.10
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? · No0.6860.885$129.00+$29.00
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026? · No0.7500.765$102.00+$2.00
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? · Up0.8500.935$93.50+$8.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-27 14:04Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?BUY0.85$425.00
10-27 13:55Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?BUY0.79$118.50
10-19 23:02Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?BUY0.092$9.20
10-19 20:54Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.14$19.18
10-12 08:58Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.11$22.00
10-11 19:45Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?BUY0.89$89.00
10-11 18:51Israeli election results in a hung parliament?BUY0.34$102.00
10-10 22:29Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.16$80.00
10-10 22:24US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.87$1.7k
10-06 15:45Plague pandemic in 2026?BUY0.0388446214$5.00
10-02 18:42Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?BUY0.21$42.00
09-26 15:30Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?BUY0.14$350.00
09-20 17:09Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?BUY0.8699999995$200.00
09-20 10:57Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?BUY0.84$420.00
09-20 10:26Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?BUY0.37$37.00