IbnKhaldun
0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c
- Realised P&L
- $11.9k
- Volume
- $1.97M
- Markets traded
- 367
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded367
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.644US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$5.7kat 0.390Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$3.5kat 0.799Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$3.3kat 0.448US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.069Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 14:04 | Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? | BUY | 0.85 | $425.00 |
| 10-27 13:55 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.79 | $118.50 |
| 10-19 23:02 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.092 | $9.20 |
| 10-19 20:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $19.18 |
| 10-12 08:58 | Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $22.00 |
| 10-11 19:45 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 10-11 18:51 | Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | BUY | 0.34 | $102.00 |
| 10-10 22:29 | Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $80.00 |
| 10-10 22:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.7k |
| 10-06 15:45 | Plague pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0388446214 | $5.00 |
| 10-02 18:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 09-26 15:30 | Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $350.00 |
| 09-20 17:09 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.8699999995 | $200.00 |
| 09-20 10:57 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $420.00 |
| 09-20 10:26 | Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |