PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

IbnKhaldun

0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c

Realised P&L
$11.2k
Volume
$1.93M
Markets traded
329
Open portfolio
$9.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded329
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.8990.895$4.7k$22.68
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.7190.640$865.13$106.43
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.085$850.00$250.00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1270.085$730.99$359.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No0.9301.000$610.22+$42.22
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? · No0.7350.976$195.10+$48.10
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · No0.8300.915$183.00+$17.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.3700.435$174.00+$26.00
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? · Yes0.2820.345$141.80+$25.96
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.5600.655$116.96+$16.96
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? · No0.8700.960$110.29+$10.29
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? · No0.6860.735$107.14+$7.14
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3450.340$106.75$1.46
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.9620.984$98.35+$2.15
Will Israel election happen as scheduled? · Yes0.9100.956$95.55+$4.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-30 21:16Will Israel election happen as scheduled?BUY0.91$91.00
07-29 22:55US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?BUY0.88$88.00
07-24 09:37Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.06$12.00
07-23 23:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.11$3.30
07-23 23:10Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.13$4.16
07-23 22:58Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.29$58.00
07-23 22:56Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.13$39.00
07-18 07:04Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.537$5.37
07-16 20:13Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?BUY0.357$21.42
07-16 20:13Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?BUY0.357$35.70
07-16 16:38Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?BUY0.0606209968$3.20
07-16 16:38Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17?BUY0.099$1.50
07-16 09:26Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.416$83.20
07-16 08:43Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?SELL0.15$1.43
07-16 07:19US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?BUY0.78$78.00