IbnKhaldun
0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c
- Realised P&L
- $11.2k
- Volume
- $1.93M
- Markets traded
- 329
- Open portfolio
- $9.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded329
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.7kat 0.645US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$5.7kat 0.390Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?
- +$3.5kat 0.799Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$3.3kat 0.448US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$3.2kat 0.069Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 21:16 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 07-29 22:55 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 07-24 09:37 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 07-23 23:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.11 | $3.30 |
| 07-23 23:10 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.13 | $4.16 |
| 07-23 22:58 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 07-23 22:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24? | BUY | 0.13 | $39.00 |
| 07-18 07:04 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.537 | $5.37 |
| 07-16 20:13 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? | BUY | 0.357 | $21.42 |
| 07-16 20:13 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? | BUY | 0.357 | $35.70 |
| 07-16 16:38 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | BUY | 0.0606209968 | $3.20 |
| 07-16 16:38 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 17? | BUY | 0.099 | $1.50 |
| 07-16 09:26 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.416 | $83.20 |
| 07-16 08:43 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $1.43 |
| 07-16 07:19 | US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |