PolyBot

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Traders

IbnKhaldun

0xa4bc3bbdac29e51c0c4f8485cd15e36d7478026c

Realised P&L
$11.4k
Volume
$1.95M
Markets traded
350
Open portfolio
$4.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded350
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1100.055$550.00$550.00
Will AI solve Legendre's conjecture in 2026? · No0.7500.956$509.87+$109.87
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6400.665$465.50+$17.50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1270.045$387.00$702.99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No0.8400.880$211.20+$9.60
Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026? · No0.7100.930$186.00+$44.00
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? · No0.8300.845$169.00+$3.00
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.5600.895$159.82+$59.82
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? · No0.8900.915$138.59+$3.79
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? · No0.6860.805$117.34+$17.34
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026? · No0.7500.880$117.33+$17.33
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? · No0.8700.997$114.54+$14.54
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.5030.496$98.04$1.26
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? · Up0.8500.905$90.50+$5.50
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? · Yes0.2850.380$83.03+$20.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 16:31US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.64$64.00
09-15 19:08Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?BUY0.4$20.00
09-14 18:29Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?BUY0.75$100.00
09-14 18:21Will AI solve Legendre's conjecture in 2026?BUY0.75$400.00
09-13 20:28Will AI solve P versus NP in 2026?BUY0.9639999994$30.00
09-13 20:27Will AI solve the Collatz conjecture in 2026?BUY0.71$142.00
09-13 10:42Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?BUY0.89$90.30
09-12 23:05Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 14?BUY0.5299998463$1.00
09-09 20:21Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.012$0.78
09-06 11:06Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.493$25.69
09-06 11:03US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.64$384.00
09-05 06:32Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1199999748$4.00
09-04 21:35Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.5129999999$50.00
09-03 13:33Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?SELL0.87$3.84
09-03 01:30Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.2999999925$20.00