GamblingDino
0xa41f137a7fb14b2d5b3911cd890907053cb8b397
- Realised P&L
- $38.70
- Volume
- $150.3k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $14.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.928 | 0.958 | $3.9k | +$119.78 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No | 0.929 | 0.935 | $3.6k | +$21.21 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.997 | $2.8k | +$102.09 |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? · Yes | 0.955 | 0.998 | $2.2k | +$93.60 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.941 | 0.960 | $959.50 | +$18.50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.165 | $688.89 | −$1.7k |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.859 | 0.875 | $497.65 | +$9.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.794Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$1.2kat 0.818Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?
- +$796.12at 0.715Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$634.65at 0.860Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
- +$448.74at 0.922Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 05:23 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.964 | $40.49 |
| 07-13 05:22 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $119.19 |
| 07-04 14:22 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8550609163 | $369.16 |
| 07-04 14:20 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.965 | $973.14 |
| 07-01 14:31 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $92.16 |
| 07-01 14:30 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.4k |
| 07-01 14:28 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $274.27 |
| 07-01 14:22 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $3.5k |
| 06-20 08:36 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.961 | $44.21 |
| 06-17 06:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9492737177 | $334.60 |
| 06-17 06:47 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9468178151 | $206.53 |
| 06-17 06:46 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.0763854688 | $363.93 |
| 06-14 15:28 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $21.25 |
| 06-14 15:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9699617677 | $1.7k |
| 06-14 15:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.968 | $80.20 |