MPS1234
0xa4059f96534562774c7428f32bf9b68cb3166734
- Realised P&L
- $-64.15
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 145
- Open portfolio
- $20.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded145
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.833 | 0.950 | $6.84 | +$0.84 |
| Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD? · Yes | 0.079 | 0.082 | $3.09 | +$0.09 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.935 | $2.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.840 | 0.930 | $2.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.974 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.155 | $1.60 | −$1.40 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · No | 0.710 | 0.930 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| 100kt meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.949 | 0.965 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.11at 0.151Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$16.45at 0.327Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on November 10?
- +$11.67at 0.300Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November 10?
- +$8.40at 0.160Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 11?
- +$8.15at 0.480Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 12:27 | Will Carl Johan Sonesson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Skåne? | BUY | 0.9299998419 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 12:22 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + SD? | BUY | 0.0789999991 | $3.00 |
| 09-20 12:17 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.00 |
| 06-28 14:08 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 06-28 14:08 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 06-28 14:08 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 06-28 14:07 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 19:32 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 19:31 | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 19:30 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 06-15 05:29 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 05:28 | Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 05:27 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 05:26 | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 05:25 | Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.7199995392 | $1.00 |