0xA1bab665c4E11BC5A42e98e021f667a7c25a76FF-1782128972890
0xa1bab665c4e11bc5a42e98e021f667a7c25a76ff
- Realised P&L
- $-8.34
- Volume
- $946.33
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $146.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.925 | $42.05 | +$2.05 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.942 | 0.962 | $30.62 | +$0.62 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? · Yes | 0.801 | 0.885 | $27.62 | +$2.62 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.959 | $21.07 | +$1.07 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $10.71 | +$0.71 |
| Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? · No | 0.780 | 0.695 | $8.91 | −$1.09 |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.070 | $3.04 | −$6.96 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.870 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.28at 0.766Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$9.00at 0.500Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$4.99at 0.667US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
- +$4.17at 0.782NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
- +$0.99at 0.910US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 06:00 | Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.7799999891 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 00:26 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.37 | $13.67 |
| 09-02 00:43 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.4299999931 | $10.00 |
| 08-26 23:48 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 08:39 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | BUY | 0.8057237012 | $10.00 |
| 08-20 14:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7824783461 | $15.00 |
| 08-14 11:31 | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | BUY | 0.7299999876 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 11:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 08-14 10:44 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 00:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5599999989 | $20.00 |
| 08-08 08:56 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $10.00 |
| 08-06 04:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6669999889 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 12:58 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | BUY | 0.7979999565 | $15.00 |
| 07-17 11:01 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7799999548 | $10.00 |
| 07-09 05:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $19.00 |