0x9a5336297e4b46e99c8a3be1c216e7951ac89fc9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.20
- Volume
- $877.27
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $38.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.853 | $15.04 | +$3.04 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.978 | $11.20 | +$1.35 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.715 | $8.43 | +$1.12 |
| Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.128 | $2.48 | −$1.02 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.080 | $1.01 | −$0.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.36at 0.229Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.12at 0.790Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$1.31at 0.826Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
- +$1.16at 0.731Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$1.05at 0.859Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 10:31 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999983 | $7.31 |
| 09-05 10:30 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8599999913 | $9.85 |
| 08-04 20:25 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999933 | $6.32 |
| 08-04 20:12 | Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year? | BUY | 0.1799999619 | $3.50 |
| 08-04 20:11 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999955 | $12.00 |
| 07-27 19:49 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7189998381 | $3.10 |
| 07-27 19:48 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $2.45 |
| 07-20 20:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.6699999994 | $12.18 |
| 07-20 20:22 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1179999344 | $1.50 |
| 07-14 21:08 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5719998695 | $1.28 |
| 07-14 21:07 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2269999818 | $9.14 |
| 07-14 21:07 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.226 | $11.33 |
| 07-07 17:28 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1899999866 | $9.53 |
| 07-07 17:28 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $9.93 |
| 07-02 10:33 | Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.8099999906 | $7.77 |