echk
0x8fd47efefbbd8fe7ea2e865eac85309c806eaba5
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $758.8k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $286.68
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.028 | $154.98 | −$137.72 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.012 | $120.00 | −$1.5k |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.006 | $11.70 | −$89.08 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET · Up | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.48 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.80 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? · No | 0.094 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$813.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET · Down | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.99 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? · No | 0.113 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.171US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.240Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$1.2kat 0.190US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.079Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$740.00at 0.620Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 23:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.069 | $20.70 |
| 10-16 19:24 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.1 | $42.09 |
| 10-16 19:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.077 | $2.97 |
| 10-16 18:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.09 | $39.60 |
| 10-16 18:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.1238397727 | $750.00 |
| 10-16 18:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.0981075076 | $700.00 |
| 10-16 18:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.07 | $4.20 |
| 10-16 18:25 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.11 | $68.38 |
| 10-16 18:22 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21? | BUY | 0.09 | $30.71 |
| 08-08 13:10 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.0519388506 | $292.70 |
| 07-26 07:49 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.38 |
| 07-26 07:38 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $7.14 |
| 07-26 07:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.12 |
| 07-26 07:29 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.12 | $5.25 |
| 07-12 03:00 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.02652875 | $53.06 |