echk
0x8fd47efefbbd8fe7ea2e865eac85309c806eaba5
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $739.6k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $429.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.043 | $239.51 | −$53.19 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.018 | $185.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.003 | $4.50 | −$96.28 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET · Up | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$61.48 |
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.80 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET · Down | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.4kat 0.171US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.240Knicks vs. Spurs
- +$1.2kat 0.190US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.079Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$740.00at 0.620Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 13:10 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.0519388506 | $292.70 |
| 07-26 07:49 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $0.38 |
| 07-26 07:38 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $7.14 |
| 07-26 07:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.12 |
| 07-26 07:29 | Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | BUY | 0.12 | $5.25 |
| 07-12 03:00 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.02652875 | $53.06 |
| 07-12 01:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.05 | $3.05 |
| 07-12 01:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET | BUY | 0.0389702802 | $21.95 |
| 06-28 04:33 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $25.00 |
| 06-24 23:44 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? | BUY | 0.2 | $40.00 |
| 06-24 23:40 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? | BUY | 0.026 | $15.85 |
| 06-24 23:36 | Will Solana reach $75 on June 24? | BUY | 0.01 | $3.49 |
| 06-17 05:04 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.028 | $1.34 |
| 06-17 05:02 | Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.02 |
| 06-17 04:57 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.0555 | $1.67 |