0x8F9F70a4D9beeB568742C06f15Ea7Bd9A60236e1-1769884053243
0x8f9f70a4d9beeb568742c06f15ea7bd9a60236e1
- Realised P&L
- $-632.98
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $224.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$51.62at 0.390Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
- +$30.16at 0.153Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$11.85at 0.481Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division?
- +$11.00at 0.500Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
- +$9.75at 0.530US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 21:31 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $3.00 |
| 09-15 20:50 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $9.31 |
| 09-08 17:45 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | SELL | 0.16 | $9.09 |
| 09-08 17:44 | Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | SELL | 0.0566370762 | $13.30 |
| 09-08 17:44 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.038 | $11.72 |
| 09-02 22:41 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005999994 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 20:54 | Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 08-31 20:51 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $9.79 |
| 08-20 18:06 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999832 | $5.00 |
| 08-17 20:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999423 | $2.12 |
| 08-17 20:26 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $3.00 |
| 08-17 20:00 | Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Japan by August 31? | BUY | 0.5699999335 | $3.00 |
| 08-17 19:59 | Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 08-17 19:58 | Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31? | BUY | 0.3399999633 | $5.00 |
| 08-13 22:52 | Megaquake by August 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $3.00 |