PolyBot

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Traders

Kvasir

0x8ea3af44c3e147e546f877a1afa1b17a0b1852a1

Realised P&L
$-523.17
Volume
$108.3k
Markets traded
412
Open portfolio
$2.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded412
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September? · No0.9260.993$496.50+$33.50
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8400.855$427.50+$7.50
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes0.8380.490$357.70−$254.00
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.8880.997$298.86+$32.58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.9100.935$210.38+$5.63
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.7100.740$148.50+$6.02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.6800.785$117.75+$15.75
Will England win 2026-27 Nations League Group A3? · No0.6900.855$94.05+$18.15
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? · Yes0.9200.915$91.50−$0.50
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? · No0.8400.905$90.50+$6.50
Finland vs. Belarus: Finland O/U 0.5 · Over0.8400.830$79.05−$0.95
Spain vs. Croatia: Spain O/U 1.5 · Over0.7700.760$76.00−$1.00
Luxembourg vs. Iceland: Iceland O/U 0.5 · Over0.7600.760$70.00+$0.00
Will United States win on 2026-09-29? · Yes0.7000.665$63.65−$3.35
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? · No0.8790.925$41.38+$2.04

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-29 09:51Will United States win on 2026-09-29?BUY0.6999999979$67.00
09-29 09:41Finland vs. Belarus: Finland O/U 0.5BUY0.8399999987$80.00
09-29 06:10Luxembourg vs. Iceland: Iceland O/U 0.5BUY0.7599999954$20.00
09-28 19:01Will Poland win on 2026-09-28?BUY0.88$50.00
09-28 19:00Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28?BUY0.6699999971$50.00
09-28 13:25Luxembourg vs. Iceland: Iceland O/U 0.5BUY0.759999997$50.00
09-28 13:18Spain vs. Croatia: Spain O/U 1.5BUY0.77$77.00
09-28 13:17Belgium vs. France: France O/U 0.5BUY0.87$130.50
09-28 11:23Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?BUY0.71$142.48
09-27 18:13Norway vs. Portugal: Norway O/U 0.5BUY0.8299999979$40.00
09-27 13:28Norway vs. Portugal: Norway O/U 0.5BUY0.8399999993$50.00
09-27 13:28Will Austria win on 2026-09-27?BUY0.6199999975$50.00
09-26 17:54England vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5BUY0.8499999993$60.00
09-26 16:32Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?BUY0.58$76.19
09-25 18:58Sweden vs. Romania: Sweden O/U 0.5BUY0.9741550689$100.00